Latest slip in mortgage applications…

US mortgage applications slip in latest week: MBA


Published: Wednesday, 12 Mar 2014 | 7:04 AM ET

Nadya Lukic | E+ | Getty Images

Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell in the latest week as interest rates edged higher, an industry group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 2.1 percent to 373.3 in the week ended March 7.

(Read moreHousing chill more than weather: CEO)

The index hit its lowest level since December 2000 at the end of last year, soon after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it would start reducing its $85 billion per month bond-buying program as the economy grows strong enough to stand on its own.

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The interest rate on fixed 30-year mortgages averaged 4.52 percent last week, up 5 basis points from the previous week.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 3.1 percent. The gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, fell 0.5 percent.

(Read moreGoogle just dropped $50 million on this real estate site)

The survey covers over 75 percent of U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, according to MBA.

By Reuters

 

Student Debt and it’s Impact on First Time Home Buyers.

Higher Education or a House: Can Young Americans Have Both?

 

Affordability Struggle For First Time Buyers…

Explaining The Affordability Struggle for First-Time-Home-Buyers

In the latest edition of CoreLogic's Market Pulse the company's senior economist Mark Fleming provides adifferent take on housing affordability which he says economists are predicting will experience a "shock" in 2014.  There is a degree of uniformity in their predictions, he says, that rising rates, increasing house prices and stagnant incomes will soon herald the demise of the era of affordable housing. 

While Fleming does not argue with the basic premise he disagrees with the view that that news is "shocking."  "As I often point out with most housing statistics today," he says, "it is less important to focus on the fact that housing affordability is declining, but rather where it stands relative to historically normal levels."  But beyond the historical, Fleming also argues that affordability is actually proceeding along two different tracks, one for existing homeowners and another for those looking to buy their first home.

Using the same methodology as the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) and assuming a 20 percent downpayment and a 25-percent qualifying ratio Fleming constructed his own affordability index.  Using this he says national affordability was down 17 percent from the previous October and 22 percent from its peak in January 2013.  These declines are the result of an 11 percent appreciation in the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and a 100 basis point rise in interest rates.  Yet CoreLogic's affordability measure is 35 percent higherthan in 2000 when mortgage interest rates were 8 percent and home prices were rising more modestly.  So Fleming says, though clearly less accessible than a year ago, housing remains affordable in the current market."

But that analysis misses an important point.  While affordability can vary by market is also varies dramatically depending on whether you are a homeowner or not because homeowners capture price increases in the form of equity.  Thus affordability for the first time buyer is a measure of his income, the interest rates, and the price of homes; a homeowner's affordability level is functionally unchanged by increases in the latter.

The chart, which is based on a 5 percent downpayment, shows that during the period of 2003 to 2007, declining interest rates improved affordability for existing homeowners but that advantage for first time buyers was more than offset by rising home prices and housing reached its least-affordable level in 2006.  Then in 2007 the recession took hold, interest rates began their fall to historic levels, and home prices also declined dramatically, costing existing homeowners their equity but improving affordability for first-time homeowners, putting the two groups on near equal footing by the end of 2010.

Fleming said that homeowners have disproportionately lost affordability again over the last two years; down 17 percent for that group compared to 6 percent for existing homeowners.  And while first time buyers will still find affordability 35 percent higher than in the early 2000s, affordability for existing homeowners is almost 100 percent above the average back then as modest income gains have compounded and rates are still extremely low. 

Context and ownership clearly matter Fleming says.  "Will a further rate rise and increasing prices in 2014 eventually make housing unaffordable?  That will depend, but one thing is clear:  First-time homebuyers will be more significantly impacted."

Best Regards, Chris Mesunas

 

REO Incentives for Sellers, Listing Agents and Homebuyers…

More REO Incentives, This Time $1500 for Realtors

Freddie Mac has joined Fannie Mae in offering limited time and location inducements to move sales on its owned real estate (REO).  The company today rolled out sets of incentives for listing and selling real estate agents and for homebuyers.  Fannie Mae announced its incentive program last week. 

(Read More: Fannie Offers REO Incentives to Owner Occupants)

Freddie Mac will pay a $1,000 bonus to selling agents and a separate $500 incentive to listing agents who sell a home through the company's HomeSteps program.  For homeowners there will be $500 that can be used to pay condominium fees, flood insurance premiums or to purchase a home warranty.  

To be eligible for either agent or homebuyer incentives, the home must be located in one of 23 target states and offers must be received between February 18 and April 15.  The transaction must close by May 31, 2014.  Only owner occupied first or second residences are eligible and the promotion does not apply to investor purchases, auction, sealed-bid sales, or bulk sales.  

Chris Bowden, Senior Vice President, HomeSteps said, "HomeSteps' 2014 winter sales promotion is focused onfiring up sales in 'cold weather' states and condominium deals everywhere. With mortgage rates still low and home inventories tightening, the 2014 HomeSteps Winter Sales Promotion is a great opportunity for families ready to buy and real estate agents ready to sell."

States where the 2014 HomeSteps Winter Sales Promotion is now active include Alabama, Connecticut, Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Fannie Mae's program is more directly targeted to homebuyers who can receive up to 3.5 percent of the loan amount toward closing costs if they buy a home through its HomePath program.  Fannie Mae is offering the program for offers received before March 31 and is targeting 27 states, 12 of which are also eligible for the Freddie Mac promotion.

Best Regards, Chris Mesunas

 

Homebuyers Get Break…

Homebuyers Get Break as Loan Rates Defy Fed Tapering

 

HUD Changing Application Process…

NMLS Updated; Compensation Survey; Appraisal News; HUD Changing Application Process

Things can be misleading out there, and occasionally non-depository mortgage bankers wonder about becoming licensed in other states. The best source that I have found for figuring out requirements is this. As of January 18 the SAFE MLO National Test with Uniform State Content reflected the recent CFPB mortgage rules.  For candidates taking the test on or after January 18 they will need to prepare using the new version of the outline with the Effective Date of January 18, 2014. The Testing Page of the NMLS Resource Center includes both versions, and can be accessed here. And they have updated the NMLS Reference Guide: Citing Sources and Regulations in Course Materials and included a one page Quick Reference Guide.

 

The U.S. Post Office could offer banking. Huh? Would it be a great idea, and make life easier for consumers, or is it only an effort to "save the struggling government agency from bankruptcy and taxpayer-funded bailouts"?Read all about it.

For anyone whose livelihood depends on residential real estate, the bad news is that there is not much inventory out there, impacting lenders and Realtors alike. The good news is that it may be changing.

"Rob, what's the scoop on the Wells-Ocwen deal that was blocked by a bank regulator in New York?" I think that many agree that if the regulators continue to shoot down these deals, the banks won't be in a hurry to expand their mortgage lending capabilities. And when you combine that with QM, Basel III constraints, and the cost of compliance, at some point borrowers (and thus the housing market) are impacted. Sure, $39 billion represents less than 2% of Wells' portfolio, and the loans had not been originated by Wells, but still, the industry wonders if it will put a crimp in servicing values for everyone.

Speaking of large servicing deals, it is industry scuttlebutt that some servicers & sub-servicers have a problem in "capturing" large pools of loans at once, indexing them, reviewing for missing or required documents in a timely manner. Does it really take 2-6 weeks to go through 1000+ loans? An entire cottage business has sprung up around these transfers, with companies such as Capsilon streamlining the process. And others assist with other functions – fascinating.

According to STRATMOR Group's annual compensation survey, STRATMOR Compensation Connection, underwriter compensation increased 15% from 2011 to 2012 and we expect that 2013 will have seen even bigger increases.  In this market it is critical to pay the right amount to the right employee at the right time, and the STRATMOR Compensation Connection is "your company's link to gain valuable insights on the market as well as provide insight into what your competitors are paying for critical positions and how their compensation is structured. Its unique approach to gathering and separating data into useful profiles and relevant categories enables STRATMOR to offer surveys based on the following modules – Executive Management, Retail Sales Retail Fulfillment, Consumer Direct Sales, Consumer Direct Fulfillment, TPO Sales, TPO Fulfillment – thereby allowing you to choose your level of participation. By participating in the survey, you will receive a comprehensive report detailing your responses versus the survey averages as well as segmented analysis based on key company differences and characteristics." For more information about participating in the compensation survey, visit the program website or contact Nicole Yung at nicole.yung@stratmorgroup.com.

Appraisals are still a sticky point for some. And when the acronym "AMC" makes it to the mainstream newspapers, you know something is up.

But the overseer of Freddie & Fannie (the FHFA) shed some light on things with the release of the "FHFA's Oversight of the Enterprises' Use of Appraisal Data Before They Buy Single-Family Mortgages." 

(Read More:OIG Finds GSEs Ignored Warnings about Appraisal Deficiencies)

Peter Gallo, VP of the National Association of Independent Housing Professionals, writes, "Rob, I noticed that you have quoted many AMCs on the appraisal issue. The bottom line is that they are trying to do what appraisers and lenders can already do on their own. Lenders can already figure out who the good appraisers are and include them on an in-house rotation. Appraisers understand appraisal issues and can advise their clients on these issues in ways that do not violate Appraisal Independence Guidelines. Appraisers are certified experts. They understand what the CFPB is, what the guidelines are and have the education and the license to prove it.  AMCs serve a purpose for some and many do it very well. The bottom line is that if you want a good appraiser, go out and find one and pay him/her their fee.  An AMC is not REQUIRED to comply with any rules that are out there."

(It was nearly a month ago that the officers of three contiguous, grass root appraisal organizations met to discuss the common goals and concerns facing the profession. Representatives of The Virginia Coalition of Appraisal Professionals (VACAP), The South Carolina Professional Appraisal Coalition (SCPAC) and The North Carolina Real Estate Appraiser Association (NCREAA) met in Greensboro, North Carolina and discussed topics ranging from Fannie Mae's activities regarding appraisers to the focus of The Appraisal Foundation on the profession and the day to day business of appraising.)

On Friday the MBA's Dave Stevens let the troops know that, "Some of you have been asking about the HMDA data announcement from CFPB… today's announcement was a stage before a proposed rule. The CFPB is convening a small business review panel to review aspects/issues they are considering for a proposed rule. (CFPB went through a similar exercise for the LO Compensation rule.) We have three MBA members who will be participating in the panel sessions. Pete Mills and Steve O'Connor will be working with other MBA staff on a plan to get our MBA participants prepared and briefed for the panels, and Ken Markison at MBA is our lead subject matter expert on this issue."

What Mr. Stevens is discussing is the story "CFPB Begins HMDA Revision and Expansion Process Today," and the CFPB announced the beginning of the rulemaking process to revise the required reporting elements, and possibly the accompanying rules, under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA). Accordingly, the Bureau announced it will convene a panel in early March under the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act (SBREFA) to discuss the proposed changes and obtain their views on the impact from small business representatives. The fact sheet found here which provides greater detail on what the CFPB is considering.

Switching over to some investor, agency, and vendor news, first a correction. Friday I noted some information about CMG's Correspondent Lending VA IRRRL Program. The appraisal information is not accurate and it should have been, "…the alternative to the AVM is the 2055 appraisal form." (Not the 2075)

Donna Beinfeld writes, "I'm not sure if you've covered this issue or not, but HUD is basically shutting down their application submission process as of March 1, 2014. This is because they are transitioning from the paper to an on-line (electronic) application process. Their cut-off date is 3/1 for receiving applications. Because they will be working on their system, they will not accept or process any applications received in the mail until their new system is in place. The date for accepting online Applications is May 1. This means no one can submit, be approved or have an application processed for 60 days: . On HUD's site page above, the following statement appears: 'Lenders currently preparing or planning to apply for FHA approval in the near future may contact the FHA Resource Center with questions at answers@hud.gov or 1-800-225-5342. Please include the words "New Applicant" in the subject line and include a contact person and phone number in the email body so that a Lender Approval representative may contact you on how to become an FHA-Approved Lender.'" Thank you Donna!

MGIC told clients, "You may have heard about or read Fannie Mae's recent lender letter, but we wanted to take the opportunity to highlight the good news from MGIC's point of view. Because of MGIC's improved financial strength, we stopped issuing insurance through MGIC Indemnity Corporation (MIC) in September of last year. MIC is a wholly owned subsidiary of MGIC, formed to provide uninterrupted customer service if our risk-to-capital ratio exceeded any state requirements. The good news is that, since the first quarter of last year, MGIC has been in compliance with all required state capital standards. We expect to maintain compliance going forward.   To be clear, MIC is no longer listed as an eligible insurer because it is no longer needed – not because Fannie Mae has concerns about our claim-paying ability. As of December 31, 2013 MGIC's preliminary risk-to-capital was 15.8:1…well below the current state requirements. MGIC remains an eligible insurer for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."

Overland Park-based CapWest Mortgage, a division of Farmers Bank & Trust, announced it is adding fixed second mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOC) to its loan product offering for all third party origination (TPO) clients. "People need access to cash for a variety of reasons and most would prefer not to disturb the low fixed rate on their first mortgage," said Monte Robbins, President & CEO of CapWest Mortgage. "That is why it's so important for our third party origination partners to be able to offer equity to their customers through a home equity product offering." In addition to stand-alone fixed second mortgages, CapWest will also offer a simultaneous fixed second up to 90 percent CLTV in conjunction with a purchase transaction as long as the TPO client delivers the first mortgage to CapWest. A piggyback HELOC and first mortgage product will also be available to CapWest's TPO clients. CapWest reminded clients that it offers bank referral, wholesale and correspondent services, which include on-site sales and operations training in addition to marketing consultation. To inquire about any of these programs, please visit http://www.capwestmortgage.com/tpoinquiries or contact Jake Stadler, Account Executive for CapWest Mortgage, at jake@capwestmortgage.com.

Up a little, down a little, so go rates. If the employment data from Friday is any indication of the strength of the U.S. economy, maybe rates won't be in a big hurry to head higher. Employers added far fewer jobs (113k) than expected in January with the prior month barely revised up. In an interesting twist, construction added the largest increase in jobs in almost seven years indicating the recent storm may not be as impactful as previously thought, and the private sector accounted for all the hiring as government payrolls fell 20,000. The unemployment rate (6.6%) is now at a five-year low as market participation increased to 63 percent. Additionally, policy makers have made it clear that they will not be raising rates anytime soon even if the unemployment benchmark is met.

But it is a new and exciting week! Janet Yellen, the new Fed chair, will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Thursday. Thursday we'll also have Retail Sales & Jobless Claims, and on Friday is the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization duo, along with Import Prices, and Consumer Sentiment. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Our beloved benchmark 10-yr T-note closed Friday with a yield of 2.67%; this morning it is sitting around 2.67% and MBS prices are roughly unchanged.

Best Regards, Chris Mesunas

 

Refinances Falling to 38% Markets Share in 2014…

Refinances Seen Falling to 38 Percent Market Share in 2014

Homeowners who refinanced through Freddie Mac in 2013 continued to display fiscal restraint, choosing fixed rate mortgages, keeping essentially the same mortgage balance, and in many cases opting for shorter-term loans to build equity more rapidly.  In doing so homebuyers who refinanced during the year will save approximately $21 billion on net over the first 12 months of their new loans.

The results of Freddie Mac's fourth quarter refinance analysis showed borrowers are continuing to take advantage of low rates, with the refinancing shaving an average of about 1.5 percentage points off of their old rate; or an average reduction of 25 percent.  On a $200,000 loan this translates into $3,000 in interest over 12 months.  Homeowners who refinanced through the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) benefited from an average rate reduction of 1.7 percentage points and will save an average of $3,300 in interest during the first 12 months.

Thirty-nine percent of those who refinanced during the fourth quarter of 2013 shortened the term of their loan compared to 37 percent in the third quarter.  This was the highest percentage since 1992.  Homeowners who refinanced through HARP continued to take advantage of incentives offered by the program to shorten loan terms with 42 percent choosing to do so compared to 35 percent of those financing outside of HARP.  Only 5 percent of borrowers picked longer loan terms for their new loans. 

Only $6.5 billion in net home equity was cashed out through refinancing in the fourth quarter compared to $7.1 billion in the third quarter.  . The peak in cash-out refinance volume was $84 billion during the second quarter of 2006. Another $6.1 billion was used to consolidate home equity loan balances into the first mortgage at the closing table.  About 83 percent of those who refinanced their first-lien home mortgage maintained about the same loan amount or lowered their principal balance by paying in additional money at the closing table. That's just shy of the 88 percent peak during the second quarter of 2012.

During the entire year the total cash-out from refinancing was $32.1 billion compared to $320.5 billion during the 2006 peak.  Adjusted for inflation, annual cash-out volumes during 2010 through 2013 have been the smallest since 1997

More than 95 percent of refinancing borrowers chose a fixed-rate loan. Fixed-rate loans were preferred regardless of what the original loan product had been. For example, 94 percent of borrowers who had a hybrid ARM refinanced into a fixed-rate loan during the fourth quarter. In contrast, only 3 percent of borrowers who had a fixed-rate loan chose an ARM.

The median age of a mortgage that was refinanced during the quarter increased to 7.0 years, the oldest median since Freddie Mac began its analysis.  The company said this reflected the duration of prevailing low interest rates; that is few homeowners who took out their mortgages within the last four year have much incentive to refinance.

Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist said, "Our latest refinance report shows the refinance boom continued to wind down as the pool of potential borrowers declined and as mortgage rates increased during the second half of 2013. We are projecting the refinance share will be just 38 percent of all originations in 2014 as refinance falls off further and the emerging purchase market consumes a bigger piece of the pie."

Freddie Mac's refinance analysis is based on a sample of properties on which Freddie Mac has funded two successive conventional, first-mortgage loans with the latest being for refinance rather than for purchase. During the fourth quarter of 2014, the refinance share of applications averaged 56 percent in Freddie Mac's monthly refinance survey, and the ARM share of applications was 10 percent in Freddie Mac's monthly ARM survey, which includes purchase-money as well as refinance applications.

Best Regards, Chris Mesunas

 

Fannie Mae Creates Blacklist of Appraisers…

Fannie Mae Creates Appaiser Blacklist; Do AMCs Make Sense? Bank M&A Rolls On – Are Mortgage Banks Doing the Same?

If you don't think the nation is changing, think again.California's Latino population is going to overtake the white population in only two months, according to this year's state budget report. And the Golden State is also getting older, with the population of over 65s predicted to hit a boom over the coming months (1,000 people out there turn 65 every day). The state has been getting more diverse for a while, but now the Latino population will be 'the single largest race or ethnic group', and it's thought to be because most Latino groups are in their prime childbearing years. According to the 2013-2014 report, by March Latinos will make up 39 per cent of California's population of 38.2 million and outstrip the white population by 76,000; non-Hispanic whites will make up 38.8 per cent.

Speaking of California, San Francisco's Parkside Lending continues its growth. Parkside's recently broke news about the formation of its REIT, release of its new non-QM product and expansion into new states. One can add to the list new growth and job openings on its San Francisco operations team for a QC Manager, In-house Council, as well as a Closing Manager. Confidential inquiries can be submitted to Rick Nelson at Rick@parksidelending .com or visit "careers".

And First National Bank is expanding its operations in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore and is searching for experienced Mortgage Loan Originators. First National Bank is an affiliate of F.N.B. Corporation, a diversified financial services company with over $12 billion in assets and services including banking, trust, consumer finance, and insurance. "F.N.B. Corporation (http://www.fnbcorporation.com/) has community banking offices are located in several states including Pennsylvania, Maryland, Ohio, and West Virginia. The Mortgage Originator is responsible for the generating residential mortgages, which includes working with existing customers with residential mortgage needs and developing new business from external sources. This position will also need to provide the highest quality of customer service to both internal and external customers. "We offer a competitive commission structure, 401K, medical, dental, vision, stock purchase program, and much more!"  Please visit FNB's careers website to complete an online application.

Just when we think everything is quiet on the appraisal front, Kate Berry with American Banker writes thatFannie Mae has created a blacklist for appraisers. "In its ongoing effort to flag defective loans long before they default, Fannie Mae is taking aim at the home appraisal industry. The government-sponsored enterprise is keeping a virtual blacklist of appraisers that it views as shady and is warning banks and mortgage lenders to be careful about doing business with them. All loans with work done by appraisers on the list will be subject to extra scrutiny before Fannie buys them from lenders and could be rejected outright, Fannie says. The list is a small one, with just four names on it for now, but it is likely to grow as Fannie scours its appraisal database to identify appraisers who repeatedly submit shoddy work. Unacceptable appraisal practices include inflating the appraised value of a home, misstating the characteristics of a house, and failing to use the best comparable sales of physically similar properties…Fannie has moved toward a model in which appraisals are scrutinized early in the mortgage process before it even buys a loan from a lender. Instead of forcing costly buy backs for defective loans years after the fact, Fannie now will reject loans for egregious inconsistences made by appraisers."

Ms. Berry's well-written article continued: "Fannie's aim is to not just make sure that the loans it buys and bundles into mortgage-backed securities meet its standards, but also to collect consistent data on appraisals to ensure that property values are accurate and that borrowers have the ability to repay their loans over the long haul without defaulting. Fannie has not made its blacklist public. The list, to be published monthly, is accessible only by lenders and will not be broadly distributed. Observers say that the mere existence of a blacklist will likely deter banks and mortgage lenders from doing business with appraisers whose names appear on the list."

Certainly appraisals are coming under increased scrutiny. For example, here's a recent article stating that there are more appraisal flaws since the "invention" of the appraisal management company.

Mike Ousley, President of Direct Valuation Solutions (DVS), a compliant and automated direct to appraiser SaaS platform for lenders wrote, "Rob, most folks know that HVCC sunset and Appraiser Independence was reinforced when the Dodd-Frank Act went into effect. It is still, however, amazing to me how many lenders have interpreted both HVCC and Appraisal Independence rules in Dodd-Frank to mean that they MUST use an AMC.  The article in Newsday [noted above] points out this myth, as well as some other unintended consequences of the Appraisal Management Company model. 'The upshot is that appraisers who have never stepped foot in a neighborhood and who have no historic knowledge are now paid less to do an appraisal, and the results have been, in the words of one appraiser, disastrous.' Far too many AMCs pay only a fraction (often 50% or less) of the consumer paid appraisal fee to the appraiser, assuring less experienced and less neighborhood knowledgeable appraisers doing the valuation and collateral due diligence, thus jeopardizing the transaction as well as putting the lender at buyback risk. In this technologically advanced day and age – what with the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) and automated assignment logic and quality control – aren't lenders putting their very business futures and reputation at risk by utilizing one of the literally hundreds of third party AMCs (many only thinly managed or capitalized) rather than consider taking control of the valuation process and directly hiring knowledgeable and local appraisers through compliant SaaS software systems?"

And Brian Coester with Coester VMS (http://www.coestervms.com/) writes, "I completely disagree with the article not just based on owning an AMC but on the basis of being an appraiser and being on both sides of the table. The reality is the appraisals are more accurate than they've ever been. The issue of geographic competency and fees and pressure to hit the value has been a topic for years, and appraisers have been complaining about the same things for years. Yes, fees haven't gone up in some time but that will change in time as well as AMCs will get their business processes in place to be able to make less and automate most functions. The appraisal industry has been turned upside down, but for the long term betterment of the industry. In the short term there will be issues to work out; however appraisals are better than they've ever been. The reason for the appearance of lack of quality is now we just know have the ability to check against relevant data like an AVM, Automated scoring, UCDP and variety of other tools that weren't available before. The reality is appraisals are generally right, and most do a great job, the generalization that 'AMCs are killing the industry' is a huge overstatement and inaccurate. The thing 'killing the industry' is the fact the appraisal fee is a competitive price point for lenders and that the GSEs, as well as HUD, don't allow trainee appraisers to inspect the property which limits new trainees in a big way."

Hey, one training note! Yesterday I mentioned several Plaza Home Mortgage training events in Florida, and missed one in Illinois: "Successful Selling to the Realtor Market". It is slated for tomorrow the 29th, from 8:30 to 11:30AM, at the Doubletree by Hilton Chicago Oak Brook. Link

Moving over to life with depository banks, John C. writes, "Here's a map showing a time-lapse map of bank closures. You can re-size the circles in the graph to reflect bank size, loss to the FDIC, etc.:http://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/Failed-US-Banks.html. Yes, we've had a couple recent closures. Regulators closed The Bank of Union ($331mm, OK) and sold it to BancFirst ($5.9B, OK) under a purchase & assumption agreement. BancFirst gets 2 branches, all deposits (excluding brokered) and about 68% of the assets. And DuPage National Bank, West Chicago, Illinois, was closed, and Republic Bank of Chicago, Oak Brook, Illinois stepped in.

But there is plenty of bank M&A as banks see geographic and cost-saving benefits from joining forces. SNL Financial reports there were 242 whole bank acquisitions in 2013 vs. 244 in 2012 and an average price to tangible book of 1.24x. Bay Commercial Bank ($327mm, CA) will acquire Community Bank of San Joaquin ($119mm, CA) for about $4.8mm. Peoples Bank ($1.9B, OH) will acquire The First National Bank of Wellston ($92mm, OH) for $12.6mm in cash and stock. Evans Bank ($818mm, NY) said it has partnered with Welch ATM to provide machines in Rite Aid stores across New York State. Industry Bancshares ($2.4B, TX), the holding company of five TX banks, will acquire Bank of Brenham ($100mm, TX) for an undisclosed sum. The parent company of Stillwater National Bank and Trust Co. ($1.7B, OK) and Bank of Kansas ($294mm, KS) will sell 3 branches in KS with $135mm in deposits to BancCentral ($318mm, OK) and Fidelity Bank ($1.5B, KS). BancorpSouth Bank ($13B, MS) will acquire Central Community Corp ($1.3B, TX) for $210.8mm in cash (14%) and stock (86%). And First Federal of Northern Michigan ($214mm, MI) will acquire Bank of Alpena ($74mm, MI) for $4.3mm in stock.

Investment banker Keefe, Bruyette & Woods has been busy, doing 5 bank transactions already in January. It acted as financial advisor to Jefferson Bancshares, Inc. in a transaction where HomeTrust Bancshares and Jefferson Bancshares signed a definitive agreement under which HomeTrust will acquire Jefferson. Upon the completion of the transaction, the combined company is expected to have approximately $2.1 billion in assets. And TriCo Bancshares and North Valley Bancorp jointly announced that the companies have agreed to combine their two leading northern California bank franchises in a transaction valued at approximately $178.4 million. (The combined company will have approximately $3.5 billion in assets, $3.1 billion in deposits, $2.2 billion in gross loans and approximately 80 branches throughout California – stretching from Bakersfield in the south to Crescent City in the north.) Center Bancorp, Inc. and ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. jointly announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement to merge, in a transaction valued at $243 million. And VantageSouth Bancshares, Inc. and Yadkin Financial Corporation jointly announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement.  The combination will create the largest community bank headquartered in North Carolina with approximately $4.0 billion in assets and significant distribution and scale across the state.

Turning to the agency MBS world, the flows were light on Monday. A trader summed things up by reminding us, "Mortgages continue to trade at uber-tight levels caused by a Fed that buys double the net production being created by originators. Even at the pace our economic team sees QE slowing down ($10 billion every session), we still see the Fed buying more than net production all the way to July/August."

For news, the one yesterday showed that purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell more than forecast in December, ending the industry's best year since 2008. (Sales decreased 7 percent to a 414,000 annualized pace, but for all of 2013, demand jumped 16.4 percent to 428,000, the most in five years.) But in spite of the continued Fed purchase volume, and the slowing housing news, agency MBS prices worsened about .250 and the 10-yr closed at 2.77%.

This morning we've had the always volatile Durable Goods number (December was expected lower on headline and core readings, and it came out at -4.3%, core -1.6%). We'll also have the S&P Case Shiller home price index for November, the release of January's Consumer Confidence, and the 1PM EST $32 billion 2-yr note auction. In the early going rates are a shade better: the 10-yr is at 2.75% and MBS prices are higher by .125.

 

Language discrepancies naturally arise in different geographic regions, like the raging "pop" vs. "soda" debate. But the South undoubtedly takes the cake. Conversations south of the Mason-Dixon Line will befuddle anyone not born there, and here is part 1 of 4 (or 5) of some of the more "interesting" Southern sayings with explanations.

1. "We're living in high cotton."

Cotton has long been a key crop to the South's economy, so every harvest farmers pray for tall bushes loaded with white fluffy balls in their fields. Tall cotton bushes are easier to pick and yield higher returns. If you're living "in high cotton," it means you're feeling particularly successful or wealthy.

2. "She was madder than a wet hen."

Hens sometimes enter a phase of "broodiness" – they'll stop at nothing to incubate their eggs and get agitated when farmers try to collect them. Farmers used to dunk hens in cold water to "break" their broodiness. You don't want to be around a hormonal hen after she's had an ice bath.

3. "He could eat corn through a picket fence."

This describes someone with an unfortunate set of buck teeth. They tend to stick up and outward, like a horse's teeth. Imagine a horse eating a carrot, and you'll get the picture.

Best Regards, Chris Mesunas.

 

Mortgage Rates Pushing Well into 2014…

Mortgage Rates Push Well Into New 2014 Lows

Mortgage rates continued a strong move lower today, benefiting from a global sell-off in risk-related assets.  What's a risk-related asset?  In this case, it's a catch-all term for investments that carry greater risk and greater reward, such as stocks and emerging market currencies.  When risk-assets get trounced, bond markets are often one of the safe-haven beneficiaries, and stronger bond markets mean lower mortgage rates.

In the current case, and indeed in most cases where there is a large tidal exchange across the risk spectrum, mortgage rates aren't able to fall as quickly as more direct beneficiaries like Treasuries.  Still, they're falling.  Most of the improvement has been in the form of lower closing costs for the same interest rates quoted yesterday, but some borrowers may be an eighth of a point lower today.  4.5% remains the most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for ideal scenarios (best-execution), but 4.375% is VERY close at several lenders.  When adjusted for day to day changes in closing costs, rates fell an equivalent of 0.03-0.04% today.

While unexpected, the improvement in rates is certainly welcome.  The question is whether or not it will carry over into next week.  The other question is how much markets will even be concerned with what had been shaping up to be a big FOMC Announcement on Wednesday.  If global markets continue in this same vein next week, the momentum could easily overshadow the Fed.  The counterpoint and the risk is that such episodes of global risk-aversion and emerging market panic are not uncommon.  They happen a few times a year.  Sometimes the Eurozone crisis happens and sometimes things blow over.  On the occasions where things blow over, rates tend to snap back higher fairly quickly.

 

Loan Originator Perspectives

 

 

"Another nice day for consumers floating their rates. I find it hard to recommend not locking today, especially if you are closing within a couple weeks. The rally could continue next week, but it seems like today is a great day to lock in and secure the recent gains. " –Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

"Good to see rates rally again today. Too early to say if this is the start of a larger move, or a momentary pause in the long term trend towards higher rates, next week will tell the tale. Not adverse to floating here, with a quick finger on the lock button, as long as you're aware that quick gains can evaporate equally quickly." –Ted Rood, Senior Mortgage Planner, Wintrust Mortgage

"Yea for stocks tanking worldwide. Bad for our 401Ks and good for bonds and rates. I'll take the lower rates all day long. Since there is only the stock lever helping us, that could easily reverse course. If it does any gains will disappear. Locking even on a Friday makes sense to me as this is the best we've been in awhile. If rates continue a decline, then float downs and renegotiations will be available." –Michael Owens, VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate, Inc. NMLS # 107434

 


Today's Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.5%
  • FHA/VA – 4.25%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED –  3.5%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • The prospect of the Fed reducing its asset purchases weighed heavy on interest rates for the 2nd half of 2013, causing volatility and generally pervasive upward movement.
  • Tapering ultimately happened on December 18th, 2013.  Markets had done so much to come to terms with it ahead of time that it essentially just confirmed the the 6 month move higher in rates, but didn't make for another immediate spike higher.
  • That said, we should assume that we're still in a rising rate environment on average with scattered pockets of recovery providing clear opportunities to lock.  
  • The exceptionally weak employment data on January 10th provided on of these "pockets of recovery."  There are two ways to approach these.  More risk tolerant: set a line in the sand just slightly higher in cost than your current quote.  In other words, this could be either the next .125% higher in rate or simply a few hundred dollars more in closing costs.  Then commit to lock when your quote crosses above that line in the sand.  Less risk tolerant: lock on the day of or day after any significant move lower in rates.
  • (As always, please keep in mind that our Best-Execution rate always pertains to a completely ideal scenario.  There are many reasons a quoted rate may differ from our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you're following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).
Best Regards, Chris Mesunas.

 

New Risk to Housing Market…

Refighting the ‘mortgage wars’ could bring new risks to the housing market

By Published: January 17

 

In the five years since the 2008 financial crisis, there have been various attempts to make sense of what happened and why.

The latest — and, to my mind, one of the more convincing — comes in a new book, “Mortgage Wars,” by Timothy Howard, the former chief financial officer of housing finance giant Fannie Mae. Howard’s thesis is that the crisis was the result of a bitter and protracted political war that pit Fannie and its corporate cousin Freddie Mac against a group of giant banks and ideological foes determined to break their lucrative hold over the $11 trillion American home-mortgage market. In the end, Howard argues, the banks prevailed long enough to lead themselves and the rest of us over the cliff.

As Congress figures out what to do with Fannie and Freddie, which are now in government conservatorship, the worst mistake would be to get sucked back into refighting the old battles. Yet that is precisely how the debate is shaping up, with conservative ideologues once again railing against government interference in the free market, the mortgage-industrial complex waving the bloody shirt of “housing affordability,” and even the White House warning against a return to a “flawed business model” that, in truth, did precisely what it was intended to do.

Let’s be clear: Fannie and Freddie did not cause the financial crisis or the mortgage crisis that triggered it, at least not in the way their critics allege.

As Howard and others have pointed out, Fan and Fred’s giant portfolios of mortgage-backed securities — the portfolios bought with money borrowed at advantageous government rates that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan warned would one day lead to financial Armageddon — were not, in fact, the source of significant financial loss. They may have stopped throwing off profits during the crisis, but taken as a whole they didn’t lose much.

Nor did Fan and Fred get into trouble because of mandates from Democrats in Congress and from the Bush administration to provide more financing to low-income households. In fact, the bulk of the nontraditional loans that they bought at the height of the mortgage bubble brought them further from meeting their affordable housing goals, not closer.

As Howard tells it, the real story begins two decades ago, when big banks and other mortgage lenders sought a bigger share of a mortgage finance business that was generating year after year of double-digit earnings growth for Fan and Fred.

As government-sponsored enterprises, Fan and Fred had the advantage not only of access to cheaper funding, but also lower capital requirements than banks, effectively giving them the power to set the price of housing finance and underbid any competitor. And in their other role, as the dominant insurer of mortgage-backed securities, Fran and Fred could dictate the terms, structure and eligibility requirements of any mortgages that banks and other lenders might want to sell into the secondary market. They weren’t shy about using their market power to capture whatever surplus the industry had to offer while building formidable political machines to protect their lucrative duopoly from competition, criticism and regulatory encroachments.

By the mid-’90s, the campaign against Fan and Fred was in full swing. Academic papers and studies showed that most of the benefits of Fan and Fred’s government backing were going to shareholders and richly compensated executives, not homeowners. Ideological conservatives such as Greenspan were enlisted to warn of the dire risks to the financial system and the prospect of a massive government bailout. Newly resurgent Republicans in Congress, many supported by generous political contributions from the banks, called for legislation to cut Fan and Fred down to size. Even top officials of the Clinton administration’s Treasury Department, angered by Fan and Fred’s political bullying and frustrated by their unwillingness to accept any meaningful reforms, turned against them.

The beginning of the end came in 2004, when Fred and then Fan got tied up in accounting scandals that few people understood and, as subsequent litigation revealed, turned out to be less scandalous than first portrayed. But in the overheated political environment that the banks had created, the restatements were enough to force the resignation of top executives at both firms, including Howard, and send the firms into a full-blown political and regulatory retreat from which they never recovered.

In the meantime, thanks to low interest rates, a booming housing market and lax federal regulation, the banks and their financial allies had set up an alternative system for financing home purchases using types of mortgages Fan and Fred normally ignored: “Subprime” mortgages to people with blemished credit records. “Alt-A” mortgages that didn’t require documentation of income. “Interest-only” mortgages that required no repayment of principal. “Option ARM” mortgages that allowed borrowers to make whatever monthly payments they chose.

The aggressive marketing of these mortgage products by the banks and their Wall Street allies had two notable effects. First, it turned a booming housing market into a speculative bubble, particularly in California, Arizona and Nevada. Second, it reduced Fan and Fred’s share of newly issued mortgages from 70 percent of the market in 2003 to 40 percent by 2006. Fan and Fred were no longer setting prices or lending standards — the banks and Wall Street were.

It was only then that Fan and Fred, desperate to recover market share and double-digit earnings growth, relaxed the standards for the mortgages they would buy and guarantee. In the end, Howard estimates from public filings, losses from those nontraditional mortgages bought in the three years before the crash accounted for at least half of the $120 billion in credit losses ultimately suffered by Fan and Fred. The rest were the result you would have expected for the country’s largest mortgage insurers after a giant bubble burst.

In other words, if anyone can be said to have caused the housing crisis, it was the banks and their Wall Street allies, abetted by regulators who were either clueless or blinded by their free-market ideology. Not that Fan and Fred were blameless. Although Howard glosses over this point, their arrogance and political intransigence set the stage for the mortgage wars. And their desperate attempts to regain market share further inflated the speculative bubble that the banks created.

But here’s the thing: While Fan and Fred wound up with credit losses that were roughly double the capital they were holding, their ensuing government rescue didn’t cost the taxpayers a dime. The reason is quite simple. In the years since the crisis, Fan and Fred stepped in and did what they were created to do — provide mortgage financing and guarantees when private lenders and insurers would not. Not only have they kept the housing market afloat, but all that new business has also proven so profitable that the Treasury has been repaid the $186 billion it provided during the crisis, and is even expected to earn a profit of at least $50 billion.

What the government did for Fannie and Freddie, in effect, was no different than what it did for the banks. Yet while the banks have re-emerged as profitable, well-capitalized private companies whose shareholders have done well in the past few years, Fan and Fred remain captives of the government, their assets and profits confiscated and their shareholders effectively wiped out. The government’s use of Fed and Fan as a piggy bank has become so egregious that the bottom-fishing hedge funds that now hold most of their shares have a good chance of prevailing in lawsuits against the government alleging illegal and unconstitutional seizure, an outcome that could cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars in damages.

This clearer understanding of what happened makes it easier to understand what needs to be done.

For starters, the Fan and Fred duopoly has to end. They must be stripped of their special powers to borrow money at government rates, and they must be required to license their valuable software and databases to other private firms so these firms can enter the market on equal terms. The government would need to tightly regulate all such mortgage packagers and guarantors, and require them to raise enough capital to survive a crisis as big as the last one and pay the government an annual premium to insure them against losses in excess of their capital. That regulatory structure should sound familiar, since it is exactly what the government does with banks.

There is still an open question as to how much capital should be required. The leading proposal by Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Mark R. Warner (D-Va.) sets it at 10 percent, a ridiculously high number that Corker apparently picked out of the air to placate Fan and Fred’s longtime opponents. Five percent would have more than covered the losses from the last crisis while pushing up mortgage rates by a more tolerable half a percentage point.

The Corker-Warner proposal has two other glaring flaws. One is that it provides no mechanism for the government to step in as a lender of last resort when private banks and investors decide to flee the mortgage market, as history shows they regularly do. For conservatives to claim, as they do, that this is not a proper role for government is hard to square with the fact that it is precisely what they have demanded that Fan and Fred do since 2008. We know now that a lender of last resort can prevent a sometimes-irrational market from failing and stabilize the economy at little or no long-term cost to taxpayers.

The proposal’s other flaw is its stake-through-the-heart treatment of Fan and Fred. The bill demands that all employees be fired, everything of value be sold off for the benefit of the government and the companies close their doors. Not only would that destabilize the recovering housing market, but it also all but guarantees that the banks and Wall Street will realize their long-standing goal of stealing away one of the Washington region’s most important industries.

It is hard to understand why Warner, the senior senator from Virginia, would demand the liquidation of Freddie Mac, one of the largest employers in his state. Instead, he ought to be joining with the rest of the region’s politicians in demanding that Fan and Fred be reformed, recapitalized and preserved as part of a new and more competitive housing finance infrastructure anchored in Washington, not Wall Street.

Best Regards, Chris Mesunas